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With Super Tuesday setting the US up for a Biden-Trump rematch, it looks like China has no good choices. But a rising perspective among experts on China posits that Beijing has good reason to hope Trump retakes the White House. Both President Joe Biden and Trump are expected to continue their aggression toward China, with Biden locking away US tech exports and Trump more recently threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Whichever way Beijing is betting, it's hard to say which man its preferred pick would be. AdvertisementWith close-to-clean sweeps across the board on Super Tuesday, both Biden and Trump are now all but confirmed to be their respective parties' nominees.
Persons: Trump, , Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Chengxin, Pan, MAGA, skittish, Stanley Rosen, Agathe Demarais, Demarais, shelve, China that's, it's, Ian Ja Chong, they're Organizations: Biden, Trump, Service, China, Associated Press, University of Macau, University of Southern California's China Institute, geoeconomics, European Council, Foreign Relations, Foreign Policy, National University of Singapore, White Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai, Ukraine, Russia, New York
AdvertisementAfter Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, over 1,000 foreign companies announced they would exit Russia in protest against the war. "More foreign companies remain in Russia than those who left the country," Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, told Business Insider in late October. 1: Data from Yale UniversityYale University runs an ongoing study that examines which foreign companies have left Russia since the war began. Here are their results as of November 21:KSE's data shows that most foreign companies have not left Russia. Russia is making it difficult for foreign companies to exitMany companies still operating in Russia are also stuck in the process of exiting the market.
Persons: KSE, , it's, haven't, Dmitry Peskov, Steven Tian, Tian, Agathe Demarais, Igor Lipsits Organizations: Kremlin, Yale, Service, BI, Yale University Yale University, Kyiv School of, Kyiv School of Economics, University of St, Yale's, Leadership Institute, BP, Benetton, Unilever, Nestlé, European Council, Foreign Relations, Financial Times Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Gallen, Switzerland, Ukrainian, Russian
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina Alexei Nikolsky\TASS via Getty ImagesRussia's rising inflation and plunging currency have spotlighted an emerging discord between the Kremlin and the country's central bank. Analysts suggested the government's direct strong-arming of the central bank into monetary policy action was a sign of the problems faced by the country's economy. In other words, the Russian currency has entered a vicious circle that it will struggle to escape from." This is because the negative factors behind the weakening currency are largely outside the control of the Central Bank of Russia." She added that blaming the central bank has therefore become an "easy tactic" for the Kremlin in the absence of any tangible options through which to improve the situation.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina Alexei Nikolsky, Vladimir Putin's, Maxim Oreshkin, Anatoly Aksakov, Agathe Demarais, Demarais, Stephanie Kennedy, Julius Baer, Kennedy Organizations: Russian Central Bank Governor, Getty, Kremlin, Central Bank of Russia, Bank, Bank of Russia, Financial, Bank of, Economist Intelligence Unit, CNBC, CBR, U.S . Locations: Russia, Bank of Russia, Ukraine
Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier this month and the two leaders vowed to deepen economic ties. watch nowWhile South Africa caused controversy in February by holding joint military drills with Russia and China on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. The EIU said the number of neutral countries rose from 32 to 35, now representing almost 31% of the global population. However, this bloc also represents just under 68% of global GDP, highlighting an emerging disconnect between wealthy Western economies and the Global South. Countering organized Russian propaganda first requires acknowledging the problem, and building awareness about the aims and effectiveness of sanctions, she said.
However, both the Russian finance ministry and the central bank maintain that all of this is within their models. Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, noted two further factors distorting the most recent deficit figures. watch nowThe actual Urals price dived as a result, averaging just $46.8 per barrel during the period from mid-December to mid-January, according to the Russian finance ministry. The finance ministry also flagged massive advance payments for state procurement in January, which totaled five times those of January 2022. "Also, it has plans to issue debt, but this can only be done domestically so it's like a closed circuit — Russian banks buying debt from the Russian state, etcetera etcetera.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva (L) and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meet at the Treasury Department in Washington, DC, on July 1, 2021. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says Russia's war against Ukraine has weakened its economy and slowed the nation's growth prospects for the foreseeable future. The Treasury secretary hosted a meeting with Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission executive vice president and trade commissioner, and Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner for the economy. The EIU also said a European boycott of Russian oil will further deplete the economy. Sanctions have also effectively rendered Russia dependent on "suppliers of last resort like Iran and North Korea for basic military gear," according to Yellen.
Foreign Ministry Of Uzbekistan | via ReutersUkraine's counteroffensive, which has seen vast swathes of Russian-occupied territory get recaptured, could be compounding Russia's economic troubles, as international sanctions continue to hammer its fortunes. Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the recently Ukrainian military gains could hit Russia's economy hard. "Even more so than before, the Russian economy looks set to descend into a gradually deepening recession," Schmieding said in a note last week. Statistics are scarce on the true state of the Russian economy, with the Kremlin keeping its cards relatively close to its chest. She added that the Kremlin had "put Russia's economy on that path to oblivion" and vowed that sanctions were "here to stay."
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